What the heck is going on with fuel prices you keep hearing about how the prices are going to come down. Ok here where I'm at in Central Idaho the price of diesel is still 3.759 and not changed. But unleaded gasoline has now pushed lower to 2.939 as of today. I'm going to have to park the Cummins and start driving the V8 again. But if the price of crude is going down should both diesel and gasoline be going down equally?

You make me sick...  

 

... and people wonder why I turned into Mr. Economy Diesel or Hyper-miler...

Paid 3.24 the other day and saw it dropped to 3.20 today... Down the road a few miles 3.45..

Here's my take on why fuel prices have been going down. 

 

Since 2006 punitive UN, US, and EU sanctions have been imposed over Iran's nuclear program. By the beginning of 2014 the Iranian government was on the verge of economic collapse and civil unrest. Inflation was at 20%, unemployment 30%, and interest rates at a high of 25%. Those sanctions were lifted in Jan. 2014, 6 mo. before Iran's hard currency reserves were thought to run out. The state religion is Shi'i branch of Islam.

 

Saudi Arabia, which is a Sunni country, does not trust Iran's nuclear program and wants it stopped. With a glut of oil on the world market the price is going down but Saudi Arabia is not cutting production to increase the price per barrel as they have in the past. 72% of Iran's exports is petroleum, a low oil price is a big hit to that country's income. If this can be sustained until sanctions are reimposed Iran will fold.

 

The moratorium on sanctions has been extended from 7/2014 to 11/2014 and now to some time in the spring. Thank you John Kerry.

 

Russia's take over of the Crimea and it's incursion into eastern Ukraine has the EU nerves about any future movements made by Putin. This has frozen the EU as what to do by the fact that it's major oil and gas supplier is Russia. Russia's major export is petroleum products at 63%. The reduction in oil prices is costing them billions of rubles and the ruble is down more than 40% to the dollar and was down another 5% today. If the price of oil goes below $60/ barrel Russia will be in big economic trouble. "The Russia market is a victim of OPEC's apparent decision to reduce the volume of high cost production through lower prices". So the country to watch this winter is Mother Russia and see what Putin does.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/asian-shares-meander-china-data-disappoints-053600507--finance.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-ruble-takes-nosedive-low-oil-prices-080027202--finance.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     

XL  around  'here'  is  a  baaaaad  word.       Pipelines  already criss-cross  this  State,   but  none  have ever tried to  run down the middle of  a  wetlands...  about  150 miles worth.       All we've  ( People against  XL)  have tried to do is  get them to pull their heads outta their  rears,  and   re-route a little..     All of our  ground water  is   very shallow.    A lot of it is  on top of the  ground,  and   the  rest is   anywhere  from  zero to  30 feet  down.     

They could very easily   bypass this part, and  parallel  an already  XL  owned  pipline.    All the  impact studies,  and  ROA's   are already in place..

 

I own land that is slated to  get  about   1/2  mile of this.    I am offered  a  ONE time payment of  1800 bucks  for  their  easement.      If  this thing  springs a leak,  and  gets into the ground water,  I am  responsible in DEQ's  eyes for the cleanup...  XL  has  to clean up the   surface mess.. ONLY.

They are  going to  'cut' this  oil sand  with  a pretty good  slug of  benzene,  so it will flow easily through the pipe.     Benzene,   as you may  guess,   goes to water pretty dang easily..  

 

Don't even get me started  on  WHY THE  PIPELINE  GOES  CLEAR TO THE  GULF COAST!!      It  sure  won't be for  the majority of the  US... It's  gonna go to the highest bidder.  Anyone?   CHINA.    What a sight that'll be..  a fleet of  Chinese  tankers  parked off of  the coast of  Texas.

Can't comment on your local issues of the route with it but what I do know is that it will increase the road safety in our state by taking thousands of trucks off the road by getting the Bakken crude from ND into that pipeline.

Second with trade laws the US and probably Canada is we can not export raw crude oil only refined products which is why it goes to the gulf where all the "Major" refineries are located. If the XL doesn't go through the USA they already have plan B in the works and that is a pipeline to the eastern sea board through Canada and then Tanker it to the same refiners in the Houston area so either we take advantage of this which isn't just for the Tar sands oil of Canada but the oil from ND as well that will head to Houston either way but if plan B wins because of politics we the USA lose a lot in the end period.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1699902/alberta-pipeline-spills-60000-litres-of-crude-into-muskeg/

http://globalnews.ca/news/1699902/alberta-pipeline-spills-60000-litres-of-crude-into-muskeg/

You just helped me prove my point, take the thousands and thousands of trucks on the road carrying that amount of crude and the possibilities of them rolling or crashing makes pipelines a lot safer option all around. Imagine rush hour in a big city only with nothing but semis and that is what we have in western ND with all the oil related truck traffic running 24/7.

 

60,000 litres sounds like a lot, just shy of 16,000 gallons which is about what one tanker truck with pup trailer hauls alone.

I call  BS on the  raw crude export.           Where did all the north slope oil end up out of   Alaska??   It sure didn't make it to sunny California!

 

It went to  Japan.  

  Let's  assume  something has  changed  in those laws   for the sake of  argument.     Lets  figure   ALL that crude will be cracked  in   OK, TX,LA.    Then it's  sent  overseas  via tanker in   'finished product' state.     What's the difference???   It still crossed our borders.  And  all the  problems  that came along with.   Potential   water contamination of the  worlds largest fresh water reservoir,  (U.S. fresh  drinking water supply )   Expansion of  refineries  along the gulf coast  chugging out  more  clouds of  that  great smelling  byproduct (U.S.   fresh air supply)..    

 

I guess    if you  really  don't mind another  country   ramming   their  project down   OUR  (USA)  throat...     THEY  take all the profits...WE  have to 'deal' with any problems.. 

 

Killer223  ALSO  proved MY point.     60k  litres      is  a drop in the bucket  compared to    a   30 inch   pipe,  running  almost  250 psi...   with  emergency shut offs  every  10-12 miles.     (buried  in  mud)  

That is  5 cu. ft  of  benzene  loaded  crude per  running foot.  or    in a  10 mile  section..  almost  2 million gallons.   1,980,000 to be exact.

 This pipeline,  crossing  a 150 mile stretch of exposed vein of the  Ogallala  Aquifer    certainly isn't a  'local'  problem,  Amigo.     That Aquifer  stretches  clear  from just north of me into  S Dak,  clear  to  deep  Texas.  Most of the aquifer is covered  with a thick layer of clay. But,  this  150 mile stretch I talk about isn't.   It's  sand.  and  like I've mentioned before,  it  can  be anywhere from   'zero' to  30 foot deep.    Sand  stops  nothing.  

After they  strip the  heavy sand  out of the crude down in Texas..  where  do ya'll  suppose  that  'pile'  will end up??    On the shores  of  Galveston?  Lets talk about  what the inside of that pipe  will do as  all that  sand  hones  out the bottom half of that pipe.  How many years  before  it's  paper thin?

This  crude isn't like  the  sweet stuff of  years gone by.  It's a totally different  animal.     What they have to do to it to  get it to flow (benzene)   the abrasiveness of it's contents (sand)    the length of  this  'run'.   There is  a lot of  'what if's'  that   every  citizen of this  Country may have to 'pay for dearly'  in the future.  

Don't get me  wrong.  I am not a  'tree hugger'.   I applaud  getting the crude out of the ground,  and into OUR   economy.   Let  US  GET THE BENEFITS,  not just the  cleanups.  

I'd sure hate to sell  'china'  billions  of   tons of  grain,  that was  irrigated  with  aquifer water  'laced'  with  benzene. Or the millions of  cattle that drink out this same water supply..(yep, YOUR  beef  comes  'somewhere')     Or   dealing with  an ever growing  population on the gulf coast  that  relies  heavily on this  aquifer for  drinking water.   Yes,  ALL  this  water ends up  down there.

Someday,  fresh water will be far more valuable than  crude.

Edited December 2, 201410 yr by Mopar1973Man
Language clean up

I guess one more pipeline that runs along side the other dozens of major pipelines through that same area is the icing on the cake, has nothing to do with the fact that the tree huggers with no common sense and the fact they have no idea how NAFTA and GAT have bled mexico and Canadas economies for the benefit of the off shore bankers over the years don't want the largest naturally polluted area of the world cleaned up by separating the surface oil out of the surface sandy soil.

 

Better park all them diesels and saddle up the horses again boys. The half dried up aquifer that is among the highest polluted water supplies in the world is going to get worse than all the ag chemicals and fertilizers already in it, Oh wasn't I supposed to let that cat out of the bag oops, sorry and to irrigate sand and  desert on top of it what a waste.

 

Don't forget I come from a large grain and cattle operation so I know the ins and outs of both sides of the story and if we keep using all the chemicals and fertilizers to grow grains that nature never intended for the human body and cattle to eat like we are clean water is the least of our worries.

OK time to put on our get along shirt now. lol

 

Fine then.   Go ahead  and  think you know  how ALL  eco systems work just because you  plowed a couple  sections  'up there'.    You apparently  no idea  how this  aquifer works..  It doesn't even   get up your way.     Any  8th grader  educated in this  State  has   a dang good idea  on  what's going on under their feet.

 

  True,   there are problems  with some  pesticides.. but  mainly nitrates.   I  am worried too.    Through better fert management,  water quality has  stabilized...  Not  cured,  but isn't any worse.       It  was   this way long before I moved  here from Eastern Iowa in 1984.  Don't blame me.

 

But you know,     ALL THE  BILLIONS OF GALLONS  OF WATER USED FOR AG???    somewhere,  someone  got a nice healthy meal (cheapest in the world)   At least  some  'good'  came of it,  

It's hardly  "half dried up"  That statement  sounds  suspiciously  like a  'tree hugger statement'.       Even if it  was  'half dried',   doe that mean  it  should be   endangered even more?   There is more fresh water under our feet that what is in the Great lakes combined.

 

Again,   A simple  movement  of a line on a map  would  eliminate  all this  concern.       But the  peanut counters  that  throw darts at a map  look at the  most direct ,  most  profitable  route to take.  

    No matter,   let em  pollute our  ground water.   The plans  are to  drain the  Missouri    at  3 forks,  put it all in this pipeline  after the oil runs out.  and  sell this  water to the gulf coast.      problem solved. 

 

To sum up this whole debacle,  please explain to me  how  we are mandated  by the federal govt,  to protect/preserve  even the  tiniest of  wetland potholes..    even a  5 foot diameter  'puddle',    without  being   sent up on  wetland destruction charges?   But  at the same time,  they look the other way  when  a project this huge  looms on the horizon?  Sure,  as long as it doesn't blow,  the water is  safe.        Also  explain  why  the landowners  under this pipeline  are ultimately responsible for any cleanup  caused  by  a leak??   It's  all in writing.   XL  would  scrape up the  mess that  gurgles to the  top,  but  any  'crap'   that gets away  is  ours,  and ours  alone.

True,   like I've said  before many posts ago,   piplines  criss-cross  this  state and  nation.    Nothing  like what is proposed   exposes  so many miles  of   this  riparian  eco system..     They  already have  pipelines  east of this project,  buried  deep in the heaviest clay there is.    safe and  sound.  Not a peep of concern from those  folks,  and  rightly so.  

Anybody who has  pissed on their  ground around here  can  testify  how  quick  the wet spot  soaks away..   and  even  half  evaporated  before they get back on the horse..       This  stretch of  sand  is  like no other  eco system in the  world.

Interesting articles I found and have read up on the proposed route and can't blame you for your frustration, it is in your hands as a state and land owner to handle these things locally for sure and since there can be no eminent domain pulled on a project like this even a small land owner can affect the routing of it. I can't believe they only offered you 1800 for 1/2 mile of right of way pay for it that is pathetic, I own 300 feet of right away in front of my house along a dead end road along a main BNSF railway and got more than that for lesser utility plow ins.

 

http://online.wsj.com/articles/lawsuit-by-nebraska-landowners-may-decide-keystone-pipelines-fate-1416508187

 

http://keystone-xl.com/facts/myths-facts/

 

http://theenergycollective.com/jemillerep/270736/benefits-blocking-keystone-xl-pipeline-facts-or-myths

I understand this a frustrating topic involving environmental conditions and big companies, and pipelines. I'm not even going to admit I know anything about this subject. But I would like to ask Wild & Free what is the deal on diesel prices being so high right now? Then vs. gasoline prices crashing low?

 

Sad but truth... pipelines, crude oil and petroleum products will continue to be used in the world.

 

I think its healthy to disagree with each other and debate over this topic a bit but remember we are all family here... So time to wear the shirt. Thanks Wild & Free that is a priceless photo!

 

From what I understand it has to do with refining capabilities first and foremost then supply and demand and how many wholesale suppliers there are "or not "in an area "lack of competition" and where they get the fuel out of be it a pipeline load out or refinery direct load out facility and how far it has to be trucked to the final retailers and how many middle man handlers/haulers distributers there is adds to it as well. There are very few diesel specific refiners in comparison to gasoline so that is a major contributor then refineries are built and designed for specific types of crude and require different types of refinement processes. The demand for diesel has dramatically increased over the years as well plus the cold winters put a draw on the diesel fuel oil supply as the east coast still relys on fuel oils heavily for heating. This is just a bit of info my pee brain has on the subject, perhaps Skellyman or CSM can give more insider advice here.

 

Here in ND we have a diesel specific refinery http://www.dprefining.com/ going on line about 75 miles west of my house this month and it is the first new oil refinery to be built in the USA in over 40 years and there are others slated for construction in the state as well one being another diesel specific refinery and one to refine crude into pvc products and pellets.

A bit more info on this broad and complex subject from here in ND.

http://sayanythingblog.com/entry/oil-goes-50-per-barrel-north-dakota/

All my experience is upstream.  I am a frac guru, not a pipeliner. A buddy of mine is a pipeline guy though, and a darn good engineer.  

 

However, I will say this... There are a myriad of pipelines running around the country carrying many things... I think we can build a workable pipeline to the refineries on the gulf coast.  Now, is the XL it?  I have no idea. Personally, I want stable energy prices... Good for my day job, good for energy prices, etc.

A bit more info on this broad and complex subject from here in ND.

http://sayanythingblog.com/entry/oil-goes-50-per-barrel-north-dakota/

 

Stand by for some entertainment up there, Bill... There are going to be a lot of rig hands selling stuff cheap.  

A lot of the big guys on the block are saying they can still operate  for a couple years at around $46 a barrel but its the smaller startup companies that are getting worried from what I am hearing. The technology was designed for our specific shale plays and all the big companies are all set and not slowing because they have all the leases secured already and the cost of bringing a well to production in a shale play will be cheaper here now than other plays around the country, what they are saying is they will not bring in any more rigs and it will definitely mello out things for a bit.

 

saw a couple interesting stories the last couple days, sounds like the Saudis are going to lose this one but it will keep costs low for a bit.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-30/oil-at-40-possible-as-market-transforms-caracas-to-iran.html

Another thing that caused the price of diesel to be so much higher was the requirement of ULSD which greatly increased the amount of refining required and refining processes changed and the refineries needing to do many upgrades and changes all up the cost of diesel.