Hey.... Just Morning Coffee and Wired Up Chat........

[JAG1]

How does everyone feel about our future...... I feel a large degree of uncertainty, how about you?

 

BTW, hijacking on this thread is not only allowed, it's also welcomed.           I notice a lot less postings lately, wonder what's going on with everyone.

Edited January 26, 2021 by JAG1

[Mopar1973Man]

Between all the vehicles in the yard and bitter cold I've been working more outside that at the website.

 

2005 Dodge Ram on 35 inch tires needs a steering box rebuilt by Blue Top. Then I need to order injectors for this truck.

 

2002 Dodge had both the FASS and injection pump fail at roughly 100 miles. Im going to be installing both today.

 

2003 VW Passat I need to look into the cam sensor wiring. Then order a oxygen sensor.

 

I've got an Olds 88 that needs a water pump.

 

2006 Dodge needs a clutch and injectors (shop truck].

 

Then the 1987 motor home needs plug wires and new fuel pump on a Chevy 454 CID. Roof repair and roof vent replacement.

 

1985 Chevy Suburban needs a MAP sensor which after several phone calls it will be here today for NAPA.

 

Ugh...

[TheGreatWhite]

2 minutes ago, Mopar1973Man said:

Between all the vehicles in the yard and bitter cold I've been working more outside that at the website.

 

2005 Dodge Ram on 35 inch tires needs a steering box rebuilt by Blue Top. Then I need to order injectors for this truck.

 

2002 Dodge had both the FASS and injection pump fail at roughly 100 miles. Im going to be installing both today.

 

2003 VW Passat I need to look into the cam sensor wiring. Then order a oxygen sensor.

 

I've got an Olds 88 that needs a water pump.

 

2006 Dodge needs a clutch and injectors (shop truck].

 

Then the 1987 motor home needs plug wires and new fuel pump on a Chevy 454 CID. Roof repair and roof vent replacement.

 

1985 Chevy Suburban needs a MAP sensor which after several phone calls it will be here today for NAPA.

 

Ugh...

Been rebuilding my 6.7 I just bought back in August. Ran it for two months and it developed an injector knock, broke 2 rings, and scored a piston and cylinder. 

 

Much rather keep our 2nd Gens. Mines turn key and go, never left me on the side of the road like the 6.7 has....

 

Aside from that, helping my dad rebuild his Lincoln Electric SA200 pipeliner, this one a 49 Shorthood for anyone wondering. Along with put a clutch and brand new transmission in my 01 and still gotta fix all of our trucks 🙃.

 

With how work is I don't get much time to work on stuff this time of year. Work is just super draining and there's hardly any light anymore by the time I take my nap after I get home...

[Doubletrouble]

 I've been somewhat laid up at home. Been dealing with a torn meniscus since before Thanksgiving. Had arthiscopic surgery on the 20th. All went well, knee feels much better but still not completely stable. Still swollen but I'll get there.

 Been watching some stuff online from alternative news sources on the recent developments in our country. It's very scary. I fear for alot if things. I've noticed since biden took office diesel around here has jumped $.30 already.

 Once he jacks the minimum wage up to $15/hour many restaurants and other business based on min. wage labor will surely fail. Then up goes unemployment again. 

 He has shut down the pipeline project and put several thousand people out if work already. 

 These are very uneasy times and I fear what will happen next. 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Doubletrouble
Fuel increase wrong.

[Dieselfuture]

I feel we leave in very interesting times, but then again every generation can probably say that. We all like to live in the past and our kids see this world as normal for the most part as they haven't experienced much of what older generation has. 

There is a lot to be said about where the humanity is heading with technology and everything else, it all seem to be going hand and hand, like it's been a plan for a long time. Which if you do look at alternative news sources you'll see that nothing is what we're told about this world. 

Who do you trust... It comes down to good people will still have moral values and try to do the right thing, although it seems that most are scared of what if and still obey to the mainstream media for the most part. Sad really..... Some are waking up, but to what? Seems there's too much information almost on purpose, how do you chose the right one, does it come down to good discernment, do you believe man or do you believe bible, if you do then we're living in some end times according to many. I believe there's definitely a war going on right now, whether it's information, spiritual or something else. People are divided in many ways keep fighting each other, how do we combat those who want to be gods here if we're all scared of a boogeyman. 

Those that made it in this life financially will keep bending the way they are told just to keep what they have, why would they go against the grain and lose everything they work so hard for, they just look the other way, even if they know in the back of their mind they may be next. 

So many quotes come to mind, like " those who are willing to trade freedom for security deserve neither"  or " American people don't believe anything unless they see it on tel a lie vision" television programs are probably called programs because they are programming your mind. I can go on forever point is unless we all stand for the right thing, (and who's right thing?) Then we're doomed to repeat our mistakes. 

I blocked out what did I just say 

[Doubletrouble]

13 minutes ago, Dieselfuture said:

those who are willing to trade freedom for security deserve neither

 I believe that was ben franklin? Or maybe washington. My memory isn't so good. I also agree with it though.

 There is a war at this point. Several fronts to it as well. There's the information war to keep us all misinformed of the truth. There is the racial issues that you see in the news but as a white man with colored friends and co workers I don't see it as bad as they portray on the news. Neither do the colored people I talk to about it.

 Then there is this gender bender thing going. I don't want to get started on that. I WILL offend someone.

 The morals of this country and most of the individuals in it have collapsed. People for the most part don't even so much as hold a door open for one another anymore. Common courtesy is gone. If we can't be courteous to each other how in the world will we get along at all. It's really sickening.

 The powers to be are taking full advantage of this division and taking measures that benefit them under the guise of uniting the people. I call BS! 

 It's all about control for them. They use the division to control us because if we would truly unite they would be finished. Their biggest fear is for the people to act as one voice for one purpose. It would destroy all of the ground work they have been laying for decades.

[Mopar1973Man]

14 minutes ago, Doubletrouble said:

People for the most part don't even so much as hold a door open for one another anymore. Common courtesy is gone.

 

Ahem... (Cough cough!) not all people are this way. Come up here everyone is respectful of others. It seem big cities and dense populations are this way. I see this in Lewiston and Boise both. Again come out to the little towns like Riggins, ID different story. 

 

15 minutes ago, Doubletrouble said:

Then there is this gender bender thing going. I don't want to get started on that. I WILL offend someone.

I'll agree on this. All I say is read the bible and the Good Lord's laws are clearly stated. That is far as I'll go.

 

16 minutes ago, Doubletrouble said:

 It's all about control for them. They use the division to control us because if we would truly unite they would be finished. Their biggest fear is for the people to act as one voice for one purpose. It would destroy all of the ground work they have been laying for decades.

Absolutely true. I'm part of that group that can see the division and misinformation for YEARS! 

 

18 minutes ago, Doubletrouble said:

There is the racial issues that you see in the news but as a white man with colored friends and co workers I don't see it as bad as they portray on the news. Neither do the colored people I talk to about it.

 

Up here its the Undocumented. They take full advantage of the system and benefits. I've seen plenty of this where they get free hand out medically and no paper work. I've seen this twice during my cancer treatments and seeing undocumented people jumping past paperwork and payment.  But hey I get ran through the hoops and loops just get medical treatment and paying through the nose for it while undocumented people get it all for free. Thanks DemocRATS! 

[Doubletrouble]

39 minutes ago, Mopar1973Man said:

Ahem... (Cough cough!) not all people are this way. Come up here everyone is respectful of others. It seem big cities and dense populations are this way. I see this in Lewiston and Boise both. Again come out to the little towns like Riggins, ID different story

 It's about the same here. I live outside of a small town. People here are great. When we need to go to a big box stores in the city that's where it shows the most.

 

[dave110]

6 hours ago, JAG1 said:

How does everyone feel about our future...... 

 

[That Guy]

Been fixing foundation issues and starting back at university (currently online unfortunately). Overall optimistic in general, but we'll see. My quiet mountain town has so far been just that. Till it starts coming a bit closer, not really an issue here.

20 hours ago, dave110 said:

 

At least we can see the bottom. 

[JAG1]

14 hours ago, That Guy said:

Been fixing foundation issues and starting back at university (currently online unfortunately). Overall optimistic in general, but we'll see. My quiet mountain town has so far been just that. Till it starts coming a bit closer, not really an issue here.

At least we can see the bottom. 

Speaking of which...... It seems to me Biden's policies are going to send us into an economic tailspin. Are you and your colleagues taking any defensive moves in the market? Appreciate any and all opinions. BTW, almost 70 now so my money is every bit important. Thank you all for this great thread too.

[That Guy]

Honestly, we expect the debt to be around 40T by the end on the decade, but there are numerous ways around it or to negate some of it. Not the most pressing issue currently. More immediate, as vaccines get distributed we expect the economy to pick up further, as one would expect, but in some places you may not expect. Just keep in mind, regardless of politics, somebody is always making money. 

 

Some current If-then items...

If the recovery is not fast enough, you may see some public works stuff pop again. Being the democrats and green, we expect to switch from more oil (our current holdings) to more solar/wind in energies. 

 

Once we see truly lifted restrictions, voluntary and political, expect to see travel, realestate, and some retail recover. Expect airlines to slowly continue recovering from here on out. 

 

Biden has not shown a heavy desire to rein in military spending. Defence stocks are looking good for a buy, long position. Some are still down considerably from pre covid levels. Some more tech heavy defence is doing nicely already. If tensions continue to rise between China and us as they claim to want to be harder on China, expect more spending, even if it is more discrete. 

 

On the whole vaccine thing. The pharmaceuticals industry may be at a a bit of a peak once the vaccines are more regular. Companies are going to push their research towards the mRNA style of vaccines, expect some interesting developments in the next few years. This is a bit like discovering penicillin.

 

There is speculation that a lot of the gains we are seeing will plateau in the coming months and either decrease slowly or stagnate for a while as people become more distracted with returning to a more normal routine and are not robin hood trading with lumps of stimulus money. Within about 2-3 years we expect a return to a more normal patterns.

 

There is still the very real threat of anti trust actions being taken against the FAANG stocks. At the same time, tech has been experiencing huge gains. We are looking at changing where we are in tech to insulate us a bit from any potential backlash.

 

If you have been paying attention to the markets, you have heard about GameStop and AMC being picked up drastically. We are undecided if this will cause a change in regulations or not. 

 

In politics, It is yet unclear what is going on within the republican party. Like it or not, Trump has definitely stirred things up. My personal position is that the party may see another faction form and spilt, but still reside under the republican umbrella. I'm unconvinced that Trump would win if he ran in 2024. I half expect the party to put up a different candidate then. Too soon to know.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mopar1973Man]

No matter what it going to get worse. 

 

Already hearing news of Biden going to force electric vehicles and shut down the petroleum industry as his goal. Personally I don't think half the politicians have left there house enough to really see how the world ticks. Just thinking that the world will flip over to electric vehicles instantly is totally impossible. I'd love to see how electric logging truck work out.

 

For myself my industry for mechanic here in the valley has kept me busy. I would not say it a super income but keeping me busy. When you factor in just doing a VP44 job or any job with anything regarding mail makes the job super slow. Like one customer Like George's truck he had his VP44 fail (P1689 & P0216) and the FASS wasn't pumping at the time. Still in all just to remove the pumps and ship them back tested and ship back to me took an full month. Since I rely on the local part stores like NAPA to have the parts I need for a fair price and in stock. Nope. Most of the time they don't have what I'm looking for. Then if they do have to ship it it could be a day to week to get parts.

 

The bad part is the US Dollar is so weak right now you can see the price of gold is $1,851.00 as of Jan. 28 2021. You need $1,851.00 just for one ounce of gold. Just look at diesel fuel its starting to go up again. US dollar is weakening so you need more US dollars to buy oil, fuel, food, etc. Just to give a feel...

 

 

Now look back at the 1930 during the depression. The dollar fell flat there to the price of gold took off. Then 1970's the market turned around and the electronics age really started booming. Then the price of golf fell again in 2001. Now we are back up to near record highs of gold prices again. When gold heads back down the economy is doing better again. When the economy goes bad then the price of gold will rise more it rises the worse the value of the US dollar. Look as the last little drop was during Trump's time and he was making changes to improve the economy. Now Biden is office the price of gold took off higher again so the economy is going bad once again and getting worse. 

 

 

[JAG1]

So no major fear of Obama 2008 style drop in the economy then.......just certain sectors to watch with nothing drastic except for Tech stocks possibly falling off  because of their manipulation of information and exclusion of those they don't agree with.

 

Tech defense is something to watch..... thank you for that.

 

It's interesting as we have a restricted economy due to recover as Covid loses its hold and at the same time huge growing debt which is negated by sheer growing numbers of future workers paying taxes. I do not like the degree to which the Democrats seemingly enjoy their anti Trump policies and executive orders.  They should be more democratic and less Disingenuous by considering the other half of the voters in their policy changes. Without policy in moderation there can be no leadership, I'm afraid they are inciting Trump supporters to pull in the ranes on the economy.  I am afraid Biden will, in the end, reveal a full fledged lack of leadership ruled by a degree of hate for the other half of the voters. I worry he is planting the seeds for a big overturn in the economy. JMHO

Edited January 28, 2021 by JAG1

[Doubletrouble]

 No to mention the segregation of the voters. Nothing to do with race or anything else but the Dems and republicans are at serious odds right now and dividing our country when we all need to pull together to weather a storm. Since biden has taken office he has done nothing but drive a bigger wedge between the voters.

 Although I find it funny that since he has done all his executive orders and trashed things you don't hear alot of the pro joe banter that you heard 2 months ago. They seem to have gotten quiet. At least to a point.

[JAG1]

38 minutes ago, Doubletrouble said:

 No to mention the segregation of the voters. Nothing to do with race or anything else but the Dems and republicans are at serious odds right now and dividing our country when we all need to pull together to weather a storm. Since biden has taken office he has done nothing but drive a bigger wedge between the voters.

 Although I find it funny that since he has done all his executive orders and trashed things you don't hear alot of the pro joe banter that you heard 2 months ago. They seem to have gotten quiet. At least to a point.

Yes and by quenching our voice and freedom of speech is thereby running a direction of a corrupt government. Especially when they don't issue an immediate directive for Facebook and Twitter to allow both sides to have their say. I am afraid we are on....... what shall we say............. times spoken of in the good book? 

Edited January 28, 2021 by JAG1

[That Guy]

18 hours ago, Mopar1973Man said:

No matter what it going to get worse. 

 

Already hearing news of Biden going to force electric vehicles and shut down the petroleum industry as his goal. Personally I don't think half the politicians have left there house enough to really see how the world ticks. Just thinking that the world will flip over to electric vehicles instantly is totally impossible. I'd love to see how electric logging truck work out.

 

For myself my industry for mechanic here in the valley has kept me busy. I would not say it a super income but keeping me busy. When you factor in just doing a VP44 job or any job with anything regarding mail makes the job super slow. Like one customer Like George's truck he had his VP44 fail (P1689 & P0216) and the FASS wasn't pumping at the time. Still in all just to remove the pumps and ship them back tested and ship back to me took an full month. Since I rely on the local part stores like NAPA to have the parts I need for a fair price and in stock. Nope. Most of the time they don't have what I'm looking for. Then if they do have to ship it it could be a day to week to get parts.

 

The bad part is the US Dollar is so weak right now you can see the price of gold is $1,851.00 as of Jan. 28 2021. You need $1,851.00 just for one ounce of gold. Just look at diesel fuel its starting to go up again. US dollar is weakening so you need more US dollars to buy oil, fuel, food, etc. Just to give a feel...

 

 

Now look back at the 1930 during the depression. The dollar fell flat there to the price of gold took off. Then 1970's the market turned around and the electronics age really started booming. Then the price of golf fell again in 2001. Now we are back up to near record highs of gold prices again. When gold heads back down the economy is doing better again. When the economy goes bad then the price of gold will rise more it rises the worse the value of the US dollar. Look as the last little drop was during Trump's time and he was making changes to improve the economy. Now Biden is office the price of gold took off higher again so the economy is going bad once again and getting worse. 

 

 

The time to actually worry, like, legitimately start stocking up for the wars is when people stop buying US bonds. The US bonds are quite literally the stabilizing force for the entire global economy. They are the benchmark, the gold standard, the last step. A US bond is still considered the safest asset on the planet. The first question one asks when working on an investment idea is "what is the risk free return rate", which is asking what is the return rate on a US bond. 

 

You do not want to see high bond yields. That is a BAD sign. Realistically, until you start seeing yields exceeding 10% on 30 year bonds, the US is considered safe (they are currently about 2% for a 30 year bond, 0.121% for 2 year). The last time 30y exceeded 10% was during the stagflation of the late 70's and early 80's. Even during "The Great Recession" bond yields remained low. Mind that was almost 40 years ago now.

 

Give you an idea, a 10y China bond it about 3.2%. US is at 1.043%. 30y China is 4%

 

Simply put, a the bond yield is a measure of the likelihood that the the US will be here tomorrow. The yields will be higher when the economy is doing well, low when its bad. If the economy is down and the yield is high, you better have something sturdy to hang on to.

 

Now, is Biden destroying the country, in some ways arguably yes. However, bond holders globally are fairly certain we are going to be here in 30 years, and thriving.

Edited January 29, 2021 by That Guy

[LorenS]

On 1/26/2021 at 9:53 AM, Mopar1973Man said:

1985 Chevy Suburban needs a MAP sensor

I figured that would still be a Quadrajet vehicle.

[Mopar1973Man]

For me the yard is starting to empty out. I'm down to a couple of simple jobs today I need to change an oxygen sensor on a VW and then install a MAP sensor on a Chevy Suburban.

 

I'm very happy to start seeing slower times once again. Like I tell @Wet Vette (Eileen) I need to go to Riggins and ***** myself out on the street corner. This sounds funny but its totally true. I can go to Riggins, ID park my truck on the side of the building with my logo facing the street. Now go to the Chevron store grab a Pepsi and go chat with Steve Crump. Within less than a hour typically I'll have a job either Steve doesn't want to mess with or someone spots my logo and pulls in with Cummins issues. I do a bit of chatting and explaining like always and I'm pretty sure I can be turning wrenches in a short time. 

 

Like my snow thread I want to change hats for a day talking to a few friends I got one friend that has his own business in McCall ID that he's a landscaper. During the winter does snow removal. I know shoveling snow is not easy but its nice to change jobs some days. I hooked up with my friend Sean Davis and haul to McCall in a snowstorm and shoveled a roof off in a mere 3 to 4 hours and made $100 for the job. Sad part was I got focused and forgot the photos...  I was dragging tail by the time I was done.

[Doubletrouble]

 While reading this my coffee is next to me. Got a call from dad last night. So I'll be heading to his place today to check out his snow blower. He says it won't start.  Thinking he just wants me to clear the snow but either way he needs help so I'll be there.

 Was considering clearing our drive today but now temps are supposed to go above freezing tomorrow and calling for rain so maybe mother nature will take care of it for me.

 We have some cold weather coming next week. Temps in the single digits so I'll be doing what I have to in order to.prepare like getting my cord out to plug in the Cummins. I have plenty of wood in the basement for the furnace so I should be good there. I'll probably fire up my generator and let it run for a few to charge the battery just in case.